Thursday, 16 June 2016

in out in out shake it all about

i predict we will stay in.

as the proportional representation and scottish independence referenda showed, most people don't really want radical change.

driving lessons in North Wirral? learn to drive in Hoylake? driving instructor in Birkenhead?


Jim Bliss said...

I tend to agree. People will only choose major change if they feel their current situation is pretty terrible. Given that -- by historic and global standards -- the life of the average Briton is pretty damn tolerable; if you lot do vote to leave then it will be a victory for scare-mongering and the ability of the media to paint a false picture.

Which is not to say I'm a big fan of the EU in its current guise. Far from it. But the bullshit narrative being spun by the Vote Leave side should make any right-thinking person angry.

In the long term I don't think the EU will survive in its current form. Though curiously enough; I think its best chance of survival would be if Britain was to leave (Britain represents the biggest single impediment to closer integration and greater political union within the EU) allowing it to evolve into a more federal system that might stand a chance of greater stability if done properly*.

However, I also think leaving the EU would be pretty terrible for the UK in the short to medium term, and those clamouring to leave -- those with the greatest mistrust of those dodgy Euro-foreigners -- are ironically proposing a course of action that will weaken the UK and arguably strengthen the EU. Oddness abounds.

* not that it will be.

Paul said...

Thanks Jim. I also note though that people have tended to vote the way the moulders and shapers of public opinion tell them to. Most of the media, particularly the rightward end of the press, ie, most of it, tried to steer people away from both AV and Scottish Independence.

Here though, there seems to be less of a consensus from that source.

Pete said...

You can guarantee the vote will be Remain. MI5 are on the case and it is all pre-arranged. The gravy train is too huge.

Paul said...

It's 2pm here. Looks increasingly like a leave victory. Still early days but...

Brfore the AV vote, I don't remember us ever being given a chance to vote on individual issues. I'm a little too young to remember the 1973 referendum on membership of the EEC. Yet there have been three in the last few years. Regardless of the result of this one, it's interesting to see how much referenda have become a part of modern political life her in the UK.

Pete said...

It seems I was wrong...........or was I?

I believe the security and intelligence services have some hidden agenda here.

Jim Bliss said...

Certainly took me by surprise. I still suspect you folks have voted against your own best interests though. I don't think this is going to be a good thing for the average person in the UK.

My own primary fear is that it will destabilise the Northern Ireland peace. Seems like I'll soon have to carry my passport when I get the train to visit friends in Belfast. Not a good thing in my view... and something that's likely to damage the sense of normalcy that had begun to develop around the border.

Paul said...

As far as I'm aware, the ability to travel between UK and ROI without needing visas, passports, etc predates 1973. Still, I hear what you're saying Jim.

Northern Ireland voted for remain, although not as decisively as Scotland. I think there's a real possibility of a second independence referendum in the near future, and I've heard it suggested that some kind of independence/unification movement may gain traction in NI as a result of this vote. Slim chance I suppose, but we live in interesting times.

Jim Bliss said...

Travel between the UK and Ireland *was* visa free, etc. But that was before Ireland had open borders with the rest of Europe. Ireland is now part of the EU, so the border here is no longer just a border between the Republic and the North. Since this morning, it has now become the UK's only land border with the rest of the EU. If the UK is determined to prevent free travel between itself and the EU (which does seem to have been one of the major reasons for the "Leave" vote) then the Irish border becomes a major issue.

The same will be true (even more so) if the Scots vote to leave the UK over the next few years.

Jim Bliss said...

As for the idea of a "border referendum" on reunification (which is indeed being mooted by numerous folks over here); it is extraordinarily unlikely and arguably really quite dangerous at the moment. Any political campaigning on the issue would run the risk of being extremely divisive and potentially inflammatory, sad to say.

Ireland will be far and away the most heavily impacted nation by the UK vote (outside the UK itself obviously), and much of that impact is likely to be very negative. Very sad.

Jim Bliss said...

Fintan O'Toole would not be my favourite columnist (not even close). But he is spot on with this...

Paul said...

I'm still trying to work it all out.

Some thoughts so far...

1. Brexit seems to be triggering similar movements in other European nations. We could be watching the start of a disintegration, or at least significant fragmentation of the entire European union.

2. The EU is amongst other things, a power bloc. If it weakens, other powers from outside may try to take advantage.

3. Jeremy Corbyn was ineffective. This was by no means entirely his own fault, as the media gave him virtually no coverage, but a more charismatic left leader might have made a difference. Amongst all the other crap here, it seems likely that Brexit will be used by the right of the labour party to reassert control.

4. A second Scottish Independence referendum may well happen in the next few years, although if some are hoping it will happen before the UK actually leaves the EU, I suspect they will be disappointed. If it happens, I think the result would be much closer than the 2-1 against that happened last time, but I don't think it's anything like certain that it would succeed.

5. Fuck me, I'm depressed right now.

Still, the birds continue to sing, and the rivers carry on flowing from the mountains to the sea. The fearmongering came from both sides of the campaign, and I doubt if the effects will be as bad as some predicted. I hope so anyway.

Pete said...

During your lifetime you have experienced numerous reorganisations of local government. Had you continued to live in Wales, you would have gone through the introduction of a national parliament.

This is all this is. A reorganisation of administrative powers.

Do not be misled by those who claim this is a rejection of Europe's nation or their peoples. It is not. It is a rejection of a bloated, corrupt EU administration with its centralised powers and unaccountability.

But now, I fear the mainstream parties may try to subvert the people's will and the democratic process by a number of tactics including procrastination and replacing our membership of the EU with something very similar but with a different name.